Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

Optimization of flow in additively manufactured porous columns with graded permeability

Chemical engineering systems often involve a functional porous medium, such as in catalyzed reactive flows, fluid purifiers, and chromatographic separations. Ideally, the flow rates throughout the porous medium are uniform, and all portions of the medium contribute efficiently to its function. The permeability is a property of a porous medium that depends on pore geometry and relates flow rate to pressure drop. Additive manufacturing techniques raise the possibilities that permeability can be arbitrarily specified in three dimensions, and that a broader range of permeabilities can be achieved than by traditional manufacturing methods. Using numerical optimization methods, we show that designs with spatially varying permeability can achieve greater flow uniformity than designs with uniform permeability. We consider geometries involving hemispherical regions that distribute flow, as in many glass chromatography columns. By several measures, significant improvements in flow uniformity can be obtained by modifying permeability only near the inlet and outlet.     

Systematic analysis and multi-objective optimization of an integrated power and freshwater production cycle

This study represents the results of the analysis and optimization of an integrated system for cogenerating electricity and freshwater. This setup consists of a Solid Oxide Fuel cell (SOFC) for producing electricity. Unburned fuel of the SOFC is burned in the afterburner to increase the temperature of the SOFC's outlet gasses and operate a Gas turbine (GT) to produce additional power and operate the air compressor. At the bottom of this cycle, a combined setup of a Multi-Effect Desalination (MED) and Reverse Osmosis (RO) is considered to produce freshwater from the unused heat capacity of the GT's exhaust gasses. Also, a Stirling engine is used in the fuel supply line to increase the fuel's temperature. Using LNG and the Stirling engine will replace the fuel compressor with a pump which increases the system performance and eliminates the need for the expansion valve. To study the system performance a mathematical model is developed in Engineering Equation Solver (EES) program. Then, the system's simulated data from the EES has been sent to MATLAB to promote the best operating condition based on the optimization criteria. An energetic, exergetic, economic, and environmental analysis has been performed and a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) is used to achieve the goal. The two-objective optimization is performed to maximize the exergetic efficiency of the proposed system while minimizing the system's total cost of production. This cost is a weighted distribution of the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and Levelized Cost of freshwater (LCOW). The results showed that the exergetic and energetic efficiencies of the system can reach 73.5% and 69.06% at the optimum point. The total electricity production of the system is 99 MW. The production cost is 11.71 Cents/kWh, of which 1.04 Cents/kWh is emission-related and environmental taxes. The freshwater production rate is 42.44 kg/s which costs 4.38 USD/m³.     

面向智慧小镇建设的机房电气管线多目标优化布置方法

常规的管线布置优化方法难以在优化过程中得到全局搜索的最优解,导致安全性能无法得到保障,因此面向智慧小镇建设设计一个新的机房电气管线多目标优化布置方法。设置电气管线约束条件,将电压均值、单位时间内电流量、电气管线损耗恢复能力作为目标函数。优化管线布置全局搜索,使用交叉操作的方式不断得到更优解。建立多目标优化电气管线模型,得到电气管线多目标优化的数学模型。通过实验数据可知,该管线布置方法在算法测试中优于常规的3种算法,且在安全性能的检测中只与标准最优值相差6.22×10⁴,3个常规方法与标准最优值的差距为6.813×10⁴、7.6×10⁴、8.32×10⁴,因此可知该多目标优化的管线布置方法可以得到更优解。     

Tabular data: Deep learning is not all you need

A key element in solving real-life data science problems is selecting the types of models to use. Tree ensemble models (such as XGBoost) are usually recommended for classification and regression problems with tabular data. However, several deep learning models for tabular data have recently been proposed, claiming to outperform XGBoost for some use cases. This paper explores whether these deep models should be a recommended option for tabular data by rigorously comparing the new deep models to XGBoost on various datasets. In addition to systematically comparing their performance, we consider the tuning and computation they require. Our study shows that XGBoost outperforms these deep models across the datasets, including the datasets used in the papers that proposed the deep models. We also demonstrate that XGBoost requires much less tuning. On the positive side, we show that an ensemble of deep models and XGBoost performs better on these datasets than XGBoost alone.     

Robust optimal operation of continuous catalytic reforming process under feedstock uncertainty

The continuous catalytic regenerative (CCR) reforming process is one of the most significant sources of hydrogen production in the petroleum refining process. However, the fluctuations in feedstock composition and flow rate could significantly affect both product distribution and energy consumption. In this study, a robust deviation criterion based multi-objective optimization approach is proposed to perform the optimal operation of CCR reformer under feedstock uncertainty, with simultaneous maximization of product yields and minimization of energy consumption. Minimax approach is adopted to handle these uncertain objectives, and the Latin hypercube sampling method is then used to calculate these robust deviation criteria. Multi-objective surrogate-based optimization methods are next introduced to effectively solve the robust operational problem with high computational cost. The level diagram method is finally utilized to assist in multi-criteria decision-making. Two robust operational optimization problems with different objectives are solved to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for robust optimal operation of the CCR reforming process under feedstock uncertainty.     

Development of high pressure membraneless alkaline electrolyzer

A technology for cyclic generation of hydrogen and oxygen using electrodes made of variable valency material that does not need the use of separating ion-exchange membranes is presented. The technological solution enables to fabricate electrolyzers for uninterrupted producing high-pressure hydrogen with reduced energy intensity of the production. The total work for compressing 1 m³ of hydrogen and 0.5 m³ of oxygen has been estimated. Results of investigation of influence of discrete supply of DC current to the electrolysis cell, in order to improve the processes of gas evolution and to simplify the power systems of the electrolysis plant, have been considered. There is also considered an electrolysis installation equipped with a thermosorption compressor in which LaNi₅ is used as a hydride-forming compound. The comparative characteristics of the developed electrolyzer and the currently used hydrogen generators are given.     

梁结构振动支承约束反力控制

支承或连接构件对梁结构的动力学性能有至关重要影响,必须保证其在振动过程中不发生破坏或者失效。通过合理设计和布局附加弹性支承可以实现对这些重要连接构件所承受约束反力的控制。应用微分变换法推导含附加支承的梁结构支承约束反力及其对于附加支承位置和刚度的灵敏度表达式,并通过优化设计附加支承位置和刚度实现具有弹性约束端的简支梁结构各支承约束反力的平衡,可提高结构的动力学性能。     

红心火龙果发酵液喷雾干燥工艺优化及红心火龙果籽油的研究

以红心火龙果发酵液作为研究对象,通过优化喷雾干燥工艺制备粉剂,最佳工艺条件为:20%麦芽糊精,进液量:10mL/min,进口温度为120℃,出口温度为65℃;得到的粉剂为紫红色粉末,益生菌含量达到108cfu/g以上,口感酸甜。将发酵后的火龙果籽进行提取,得到的火龙果籽油含有丰富的十六酸、亚油酸和油酸。